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How long will the office tenant continue to stay?
Analysis of Length of Occupancy | Office Tenants in Tokyo 23 Wards

Xymax Real Estate Institute estimated the Average Occupancy Period of Office Tenants (Tokyo 23 Wards), which is represented by the time until fifty percent of the tenants to depart from the building, estimated with the Kaplan–Meier method.

Currently available indicators in the real estate market include data of market rent and rental growth of office buildings, but very few indicators of the occupancy period exist due to difficulties in obtaining and analyzing data.

This analysis may be used in various situations related to real estate management by the real estate market players as a guide of tenant turnover assumptions when estimating income from the asset.

Findings from Analysis

Average Occupancy Period of Office Tenants: 10.0 years (120 months)
(From the start of the occupancy to the time until fifty percent of the tenants to depart from the building)

Comparison by Building & Tenant (1 tsubo = 3.3 sqm)

  • ・Building Location
    Tokyo Central 5 Wards: 8.7 years ↔ Tokyo Other Wards: 13.8 years
  • ・Building Gross Floor Area
    Over 2,000 tsubo: 11.1 years ↔ Below 2,000 tsubo: 9.4 years
  • ・Building Age
    Constructed after 1991: 9.7 years ↔ Constructed before 1990: 10.5 years
  • ・Space Occupied by a Tenant
    Over 100 tsubo: 11.1 years ↔ Below 100 tsubo: 9.4 years
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